The PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) – December 2021

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/ Wednesday, December 29, 2021

The PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) – December 2021

Slight decline in West Bank vs. improvement in Gaza Strip

The results of the PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) showed a slight increase in the overall index, from -14.7 points in November to -13.7 in December, due to the improvement in the Gaza Strip, against a slight decrease in the West Bank.

As for the West Bank, the overall index fell from -1.3 points in November to -2.2 in December, due to the relatively high level of uncertainty, as well as the increase in transport costs and prices of raw materials. The agricultural index declined (from 5.8 to 4.0), followed by the manufacturing index (from 1.1 to 0.2) and the construction index (from -0.1 to -0 , 6). In contrast, the transport and warehousing index improved (from -0.7 to 0.6), in addition to the trade index (from -7.5 to -6.8). At the same time, the renewable energy, information and communications technology indices remained relatively stable at around 0.0 and 0.4, respectively.

In general, the companies interviewed in the West Bank reported a greater reduction in the level of production than that of the level of sales, which led to a decline in accumulated inventories. However, expectations remain positive for employment and production levels over the next three months.

In the Gaza Strip, the overall index fell from -47.5 in November to -42.0 in December, but this fragile improvement remains subject to current conditions. Thus, the agricultural index increased (from -5.9 to -1.5), as well as the trade index improved (from -33.6 to -29.9). In contrast, the manufacturing index declined (from -5.0 to -7.5) due to restrictions imposed by the Israeli occupation on imports, where companies are working at full capacity (below the normal production level) , since the last war in May 2021. In addition, the transport and warehousing index has decreased (from -0.5 to -0.9). In the meantime, the other indices have remained relatively stable around -0.1 for the renewable energies index, -1.8 for the construction index and -0.3 for the IT and communication index.

In addition, the companies interviewed in the Gaza Strip reported an increase in the level of production greater than that of sales, which resulted in an accumulation of stocks. In addition, expectations were positive for the next three months, in terms of employment and production levels.

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