Business cycle plotter

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december 2015


Source: Statistics Netherlands


Analysis November 2021: Positive economic outlook

According to Statistics Netherlands Business Cycle Tracer, the economic outlook for November was positive again. In the plotter, 10 of the 13 indicators are positioned above their long term trend. Since March 2020, the measures taken against the spread of the coronavirus have had a major impact on many indicators of the Business Cycle Tracer.

For some indicators, the change from month to month (the X coordinate) has been drastic in that they no longer fit into the coordinates of the BCT visualization. The coordinates have now been cut out at the edges in order to show the position of the indicators nonetheless.

During the month of November new data became available for all indicators except turnover of employment offices. As a result, the distribution of indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.

Seven indicators have moved to another quadrant. Investments have shifted from the green quadrant to the red quadrant. Consumer confidence has shifted from the yellow quadrant to the red quadrant. Manufacturing production and bankruptcies have moved from the orange quadrant to the green quadrant. Exports have shifted from the red quadrant to the green quadrant. Unemployment went from the red quadrant to the yellow quadrant and hours worked from the yellow quadrant to the green quadrant.

Two indicators of the Business Cycle Tracer are located in the red, one in the yellow and ten in the green quadrant. The growth rate of the red quadrant indicators is lower than their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of the indicators of the yellow quadrant is also lower than their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term and increasing trend. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also higher than their long-term trend, but is slowing down.

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